System Modeling & Simulation

Coverage & Progress

DS331

Assoc. Prof. Ayman Ghoneim (FCAI — Cairo University) · Midterm Exam · Mon 16 Nov · 12:00–13:00 Cairo (60 min · Written + Simulation Tables)

Exam Scope

Covers Lectures 1–7 (up to Kolmogorov-Smirnov concept ONLY) and Labs 1–5. Primary ground truth is Dr. Ayman Ghoneim's slides, audio explanations, and Midterms 2024 & 2025.

Overall Readiness

Sections + micro-checks completed

Sections Mastered

0/21

Micro-checks passed: 0/27

Teach It Back

0/13

Review Cheat Sheet

Weak Topics Flagged

Auto-tracked from checks & written practice

Excluded / Out of Current Scope (Do NOT Study These)

Verified directly from the doctor's lecture cutoffs — save your time for high-yield topics in the ledger below:

Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) numerical critical-value table calculations (Lec 7 stopped right before calculations; Hagag Ch5-5)Chi-Square goodness-of-fit test for uniform/discrete RNGs (Hagag Ch5-6)Autocorrelation / Runs-up-and-down independence tests (Hagag Ch5-7 & Ch5-8)Input Modeling & Distribution Fitting (all of Hagag Ch6-1..4)

Automated Weak Topics

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Chapter-by-Chapter Mastery

Ch 1Medium (Theory definitions + OR distinctions; Midterm 2024 Q1a)

Introduction to Simulation

مقدمة في المحاكاة والنمذجة

0/3 sections · 0/3 checksOpen

Ch 2VERY HIGH (Midterm 2024 Q1a+Q2a = 9 pts, Midterm 2025 Q3a = 6 pts)

Systems, Components & Simulation Study Steps

الأنظمة ومكوناتها وخطوات دراسة المحاكاة

0/4 sections · 0/4 checksOpen

Ch 3Essential Toolkit (Feeds Monte Carlo, Queueing & Midterm 2024/2025 comparisons)

Probability & Statistics Review

مراجعة الاحتمالات والإحصاء (Stat 1)

0/3 sections · 0/4 checksOpen

Ch 4HIGH (Midterm 2024 Q1b = 6 pts, Midterm 2025 Q2 = 13 pts)

Monte Carlo Simulation & Confidence Intervals

محاكاة مونت كارلو وفترة الثقة (Confidence Intervals)

0/3 sections · 0/4 checksOpen

Ch 5HIGHEST WEIGHT (Midterm 2024 Q2 = 20/30 pts, Midterm 2025 Q3 = 20/40 pts)

Queueing Systems (Single, Multi-Server & Tandem)

أنظمة الطوابير (خادم واحد، متعدد، ومتسلسل)

0/3 sections · 0/4 checksOpen

Ch 6HIGH (Midterm 2025 Q2 = 13 pts Bakery Perishable Model + Lab 5)

Inventory Systems ((M, N) & Newsdealer)

أنظمة المخزون ((M, N) وبائع الصحف Newsdealer)

0/2 sections · 0/4 checksOpen

Ch 7HIGH (Midterm 2025 Q1 = 7 pts LCG + Concept Questions; STOP BEFORE K-S Math)

Random Numbers, Generators & Hypothesis Testing Concepts

توليد الأرقام العشوائية واختبار الفروض (ضمن حدود الميدترم)

0/3 sections · 0/4 checksOpen

Syllabus Coverage Ledger

Every lecture & lab topic mapped to past Midterm questions and scope status.

13/13 topics

Topic	Source	Past Exams	Status	Priority	Notes
Simulation Definitions, Analytic vs. Virtual (HIL/MIL), OR Black-Box Triad, DES/ABM/SD, Pros/Cons Ch 1	Lec 1 (Slides 1–42) Lab 1	Midterm 2024 Q1(a)	Core Scope	high	Core conceptual definitions and when simulation is (not) appropriate. تعريف المحاكاة وإمتى نستخدمها، ومثلث الـ Black Box والفرق بين Analytic و Virtual.
Systems, Boundaries, 7 Components (Endogenous/Exogenous), 8 Taxonomies, 80/20 Abstraction Ch 2	Lec 2 (Slides 1–41) Lab 2	Midterm 2024 Q2(a)Midterm 2025 Q3(a)	Core Scope	high	Guaranteed 5–6 pt question identifying system components in a given scenario. سؤال مضمون بـ 5–6 درجات على استخراج مكونات النظام (العيادة / البنزينة).
12 Simulation Study Steps (4 Phases) & Verification vs. Validation Ch 2	Lec 2 (Slides 42–46) Lab 2	Midterm 2024 Q1(a)	Core Scope	high	Slides list 12 steps across 4 phases; audio mentions merging Docs/More Runs into 11—know all 12 steps cleanly. الـ 12 خطوة من السلايدز + الفرق بين Verification و Validation.
Probability & Stat 1 Review (Expectation, Variance, Confounding, Discrete/Continuous Dist., Boxplot/Skew) Ch 3	Lec 3 (Slides 1–90) Lab 1	Midterm 2024 Q2(d)Midterm 2025 Q2(c)	Supporting	medium	Provides theoretical means E[X], Variance algebra, and Correlation ≠ Causation. الأساس الرياضي لحساب المتوسطات النظرية ومقارنتها بنتايج الجداول.
Monte Carlo Integration (Hit-or-Miss & Expectation), Variance, SE, 95% CI, Sampling & PortaCom Risk Ch 4	Lec 4 (Slides 1–37) Lab 3	Midterm 2024 Q1(b)Midterm 2025 Q2(b–c)	Core Scope	high	Integration + Standard Error + sample size scaling + true 95% CI meaning. تكامل مونت كارلو + الـ Standard Error + فترة الثقة 95% ومثال PortaCom.
Single-Server, Parallel Multi-Server (Able/Baker) & Tandem/Conditional Queueing Tables Ch 5	Lec 5 (Slides 1–75) Lab 4	Midterm 2024 Q2(b–d)Midterm 2025 Q3(b–d)	Core Scope	high	Worth 50%–67% of past Midterm total points! Practice both [0,1) RN < CDF and 01–00 tables. نص إلى ثلثي درجات الميدترم في مسألة الطوابير المتسلسلة والانتظار والـ Utilization!
(M, N) Periodic Review Inventory (Backorders vs. Lost Sales) & Perishable Newsdealer / Bakery Ch 6	Lec 6 (Slides 1–41) Lab 5	Midterm 2025 Q2(a–c)	Core Scope	high	Know both (M,N) backorder/lost-sales mechanics and Newsdealer/Bakery Cash Profit (no lost-opportunity deduction). جدول (M, N) بنوعيه + مسألة بائع الصحف والمخبز (بدون خصم الـ Lost opportunity).
True vs. Pseudo-RN, Mid-Square, LCG (Full-Period Theorems), BBS, Hypothesis Testing ('Fail to reject H₀') Ch 7	Lec 6 Tail + Lec 7 (Slides 1–33)	Midterm 2025 Q1	Core Scope	high	LCG sequence & period appeared on Midterm 2025 Q1; Hypothesis Testing courtroom logic emphasized in Lec 7 audio. الـ LCG والـ Period + عيوب Mid-Square + معادلة BBS + منطق المحكمة (Fail to reject H₀).
Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) Visual Concept ONLY (i/N vs. F(x)=x, D⁺/D⁻ idea) Ch 7	Lec 7 (Slides 34–38, Audio Cutoff)	—	Supporting	low	Dr. Ayman explained the visual/conceptual gap idea and explicitly stopped right before calculations. الفكرة النظرية فقط لقياس الفرق بين التجريبي والنظري — المنهج وقف قبل الحسابات.
K-S Numerical Calculations & Critical-Value Table Lookup	Lec 7 (Slides 39–42 unreached) / Hagag Ch5-5	—	Excluded (Out of Scope)	low	OUT OF SCOPE: lec7.txt ends right before K-S numerical computation. محذوف / بره الميدترم: تسجيل د. أيمن وقف مباشرة قبل الحسابات الرقمية للـ K-S.
Chi-Square Goodness-of-Fit Test for RNGs	Hagag Ch5-6 (Not in Dr. Ayman Lec 1–7)	—	Excluded (Out of Scope)	low	OUT OF SCOPE: Covered only in external Hagag videos after Dr. Ayman's midterm cutoff. محذوف / بره الميدترم: مش موجود في محاضرات د. أيمن لحد محاضرة 7.
Autocorrelation & Runs Independence Tests	Hagag Ch5-7 & Ch5-8	—	Excluded (Out of Scope)	low	OUT OF SCOPE for Midterm. محذوف / بره الميدترم: اختبارات الـ Autocorrelation بعد الميدترم.
Input Modeling, Data Collection & Distribution Fitting	Hagag Ch6-1..4	—	Excluded (Out of Scope)	low	OUT OF SCOPE for Midterm (Post-midterm chapter). محذوف / بره الميدترم: شابتر Input Modeling بالكامل بعد الميدترم.

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